The Volume 3, Issue 2 of the Caucasus Edition published in December 2018 is dedicated to Political Transitions and Conflicts in the South Caucasus. The issue includes articles by Nina Caspersen on Western engagement with de facto states, Sergey Markedonov on Russia’s and Ömer Turan on Turkey’s policies.
Mikayel Zolyan, then of Yerevan’s Center for Regional Studies and since elected member of Armenia’s parliament, and Lala Jumayeva, formerly of the Azerbaijani Diplomatic Academy, discuss and offer recommendations on militarist discourses in Armenia and Azerbaijan. Zaur Shiriyev of the International Crisis Group and Anahit Shirinyan of Chatham House attempt the same with the impact of revolutionary changes in Armenia on Karabakh negotiations.
As part of his research, in September 2018 Shiriyev surveyed thirty members of Azerbaijani expert and civil society groups, including government and pro-government experts and analysts. Of these 30, 29 admitted that they expected Armenian protests to fail through some combination of domestic crackdown and Russian intervention.
Overall attitude towards the change of government in Armenia has been positive in Azerbaijan, with Aliyev regime officials, in particular, expressing hope that Armenia’s new leadership would be more inclined to compromise on Karabakh. But 20 out of 30 respondents in Shiriyev’s survey did not expect Nikol Pashinyan’s policy to be different from Serzh Sargsyan’s.
The Caucasus Edition is published by the Imagine Center for Conflict Transformation.