The Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), a Brussels-based think tank, has released “Beyond Frozen Conflict: Scenarios for the Separatist Disputes of Eastern Europe,” a new compendium of articles on unresolved conflicts in the former Soviet space. The book is co-authored by Thomas de Waal of Carnegie Europe and Nikolaus von Twickel of Zentrum Liberale Moderne and edited by Michael Emerson of CEPS.
In its introduction the report notes that “the oldest of the five conflicts considered here is the dispute between Armenians and Azerbaijanis over the territory of Nagorny Karabakh, dating back to 1988. This is also the conflict where the scenario of a return to full-scale violence is most likely. A four-day outbreak of violence in 2016 was a salutary lesson in this regard. Over the previous three decades, the conflict has expanded to be one of full rivalry between the two nation-states of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Geopolitical factors are secondary, and Russia is more detached, as it lacks a presence on the ground in the conflict region and seeks to maintain good relations with both sides. The profile of the EU is extremely low.”
The publication was part of EU’s Association Agreements with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine funded by the Swedish International Development Agency (Sida).
In February 2018, CEPS hosted a conference “Remedial Secession in Theory and Practice” that focused on the Karabakh conflict.